Dinamika Sosial-Politik sebagai Penyebab Eskalasi Konflik di Timor Timur (1974-1999)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the socio-political dynamics that contributed to the escalation of conflict in East Timor during the period of 1974–1999. The research focuses on key factors such as the political restructuring following the collapse of Portugal’s Estado Novo regime, ideological competition among emerging local parties, and the military and political intervention carried out by Indonesia. Using a qualitative approach grounded in historical and political analysis, the study identifies that social instability, elite rivalry, and weak mechanisms for political transition played significant roles in perpetuating long-term conflict. Furthermore, external influences including Cold War dynamics, regional geopolitical interests, and international involvement intensified the complexity of the situation. The findings suggest that the escalation of conflict in East Timor cannot be understood solely as a local phenomenon but rather as the result of interactions between structural factors, domestic actors, and international interventions. This research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the roots of the conflict and its relevance for studies on conflict resolution and international relations.